- Bitcoin remains to be on observe to shut with positive aspects for the fifth straight month, regardless of having witnessed a double-digit technical correction within the final 36 hours.
- The hourly chart exhibits the pullback has ended and costs might revisit latest highs over the weekend.
- With a reward halving due in Could 2020 and elevated institutional participation, costs might rise additional within the second half of this yr.
- A break under the Could 30 excessive of $9,097 would invalidate the bullish outlook as per the every day chart.
Whereas bitcoin’s value has witnessed a double-digit correction within the final 36 hours, the cryptocurrency remains to be on observe to finish within the inexperienced for the fifth consecutive month.
The worth of a single bitcoin fell to $10,300 on Bitstamp yesterday, retracing 55 p.c of the rally from the June four low of $7,432 to the June 26 excessive of $13,880.
As of writing, BTC is altering palms at $11,800, down 15 p.c from latest highs. Nonetheless, regardless of the correction, the highest cryptocurrency remains to be up 38 p.c from its June 1 opening value of $eight,546.
With the month-to-month shut simply two days away and technical research reporting bullish circumstances, BTC is more likely to finish June on a constructive observe.
The ensuing five-month successful run would be the longest since August 2017, as seen within the chart under.
- Bitcoin is flashing inexperienced for the fifth month straight, having rallied by 11, eight, 28, and 62 p.c in February, March, April and Could, respectively.
- An analogous successful streak was noticed in 5 months to August 2017.
- The cryptocurrency seems on observe to log double-digit value positive aspects for the third consecutive month – the primary such run for the reason that remaining quarter of 2017.
- What’s extra, bitcoin is about to submit a file second-quarter achieve of over 180 p.c, as mentioned earlier this week.
The stellar run could possibly be prolonged within the second half of this yr, because the cryptocurrency is about to bear a mining reward halving someday in Could 2020.
Additional, some observers together with Anthony Popliano, co-founder and companion of Morgan Creek Digital, consider the rally seen within the first half was backed by institutional cash and the inflows might rise additional sooner or later, thus retaining BTC higher bid.
In the meantime, Marc Bhargava of tagomi.com, the primary digital prime brokerage in cryptocurrency markets, believes this yr’s rally is the product of each retail and institutional cash.
Whereas speaking to CoinDeskLIVE, Bhargava mentioned the 2017 rally was virtually completely pushed by retail cash, whereas the one seen this yr has been extra balanced, with an roughly 80:20 ratio of retail to institutional cash.
Bhargava, nevertheless, cited low buying and selling volumes as a trigger for concern and confused the necessity for elevated adoption by giant asset managers for additional value positive aspects.
That mentioned, there appears to be a consensus available in the market that Fb’s Libra cryptocurrency will find yourself boosting bitcoin’s enchantment as an anti-establishment asset and thus its adoption fee.
All-in-all, the macros appear aligned in favor of the continuation of the worth rise within the second half of this yr. The long-term technical charts are additionally flashing bullish alerts.
In the meantime, the intraday charts point out the pullback has ended and up to date highs might come into play over the weekend.
Hourly and every day charts
The hourly chart (above left) exhibits that the relative energy index (RSI) has breached the descending trendline, invalidating the bearish divergence (lower-highs sample) established earlier this week.
Additional, the chart is reporting a bearish channel breakout. Consequently, BTC might rise again to ranges above $13,000 over the weekend.
Supporting the bullish case is that the cryptocurrency repeatedly bounced from the bullish (ascending) 10-day shifting common on the every day chart (above proper).
The outlook on that timeframe will stay bullish so long as the worth is held above the Could 30 excessive of $9,097.
Weekly and month-to-month charts
Costs might come underneath stress subsequent month because the weekly RSI (above left) is reporting excessive overbought circumstances, with the best studying since January 2018.
Any value dip, nevertheless, will seemingly be short-lived, as a channel breakout and a bullish crossover of the 5- and 10-month MAs on the month-to-month chart (above proper) might to have opened the doorways for a rally to file highs above $20,000.
Disclosure: The creator holds no cryptocurrency on the time of writing
Bitcoin picture through CoinDesk archives; charts by TradingView